Fewer Cars in NYC? (posted February 14, 2005)
We at www.bridgetolls.org aren't sure what to make of today's reports that
car registrations in NYC fell 5% from 2000 to 2003. We'd love to believe it
- fewer cars make for a healthier city, and a 5% drop equates to 100,000
fewer vehicles clogging Gotham's fragile arteries.
Crain's NY broke the story under the headline, "Fed-up NYers ditch their
cars," and the Daily News followed with "High costs drive car owners
crazy." Both stories quoted DMV sources and both highlighted a 12% decline
in Brooklyn registrations. That's a drop of 55,000, accounting for more
than half of the citywide shrinkage.
So why aren't we convinced? Well, a 5% drop in three years is mighty steep
and cries out for explanation. A 12% drop in Brooklyn is especially stark.
Yet neither article tried to explain why registrations in Brooklyn should
have fallen four times faster than in the other boroughs. And neither
quoted a single Brooklyn resident who had given up a car.
What intrigued us more was Crain's reporting that the annual cost to own
and operate a car in the city is up 6% from 2003 and a whopping 15% over
2001 and now stands at $9,700. Now that could explain the trend away from
owning cars.
To be sure, 9,700 bucks is probably the annual cost to keep a car in prime parts of
Manhattan where parking charges are astronomical. But whatever the true
figure may be, the additional cost of bridge tolls pales by comparison.
In our Who Will Pay report, we found that the 98% of NYC households
in which no one commutes daily on a free East River bridge will fork up
just $50 a year on average in new bridge tolls. Even for the 2% minority of
free-bridge commuters, the extra $1,700 a year in tolls is just a fraction
of what they already pay to keep a car here.
Which confirms our hunch that the supposed legions who stand to be gravely
injured by East River bridge tolls are really just a relative handful. Like
Brooklyn borough president Marty Markowitz and his four best friends,
perhaps?
Micropayments
The adage that nothing happens in a vacuum applies to East
River bridge tolls and to road pricing generally. How readily the
public accepts paying to use road space will be influenced
by a broad cultural context.
Our new (1-1-2005) page takes aim at this larger picture.
Our inaugural article, a
NY Times story about micropayments,
suggests that both technology and cultural norms are
changing to foster acceptance of routine (and seamless)
e-payments for small, incremental purchases and uses.
If cups of coffee are soon paid for with plastic, then the
return of East River bridge tolls may be closer than we think.